Why Biden and Trump are combating over one electoral vote in Nebraska

But past the massive prizes lie the smallest prizes within the aggressive races: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (one electoral vote), Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (one electoral vote), Nevada (six electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes).

Combined they solely comprise 12 electoral votes, however they may find yourself enjoying an outsized function within the final end result between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

All of those races look to be ones the place there’s a real looking probability for the end result to flip from 2016, and the polling suggests likewise. One or each candidates are promoting in all of them.

Recent polls from The New York Times and Siena College have Nevada and New Hampshire throughout the margin of error, after Hillary Clinton received them 4 years in the past by lower than 2.5 factors.
The little polling we’ve from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District also indicate the potential for these votes to flip from Trump to Biden. Remember Maine and Nebraska are the one states the place the winner of every congressional district is awarded an electoral vote.
If you do not assume considered one of these contests could make the distinction, simply do not forget that New Hampshire was the one state apart from Florida in 2000 that George W. Bush received and his margin was lower than the vote share Ralph Nader acquired. Had Al Gore received New Hampshire, he would have received the election.

An examination of the polling averages reveals how that would occur once more. If you had been so as to add up the states Biden is forward in proper now, beginning with the state he has the biggest benefit in, the state at which he reaches 270 electoral votes might be Arizona. That’s solely, nevertheless, if he wins both in Maine or Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. If Biden misplaced within the second congressional district in each states, we would have a 269 to 269 tie.

Another option to get on the significance of those small contests is to have a look at forecasting fashions from websites like FiveThirtyEight or Jack Kersting. You’ll discover that mixed Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Nevada and New Hampshire have someplace round a 7% or 8% probability of being the competition that ideas the steadiness of the Electoral College and due to this fact the election.

That 7% to eight% of being decisive is barely barely much less of an opportunity than Wisconsin, roughly the identical as Michigan and truly barely greater than Arizona, Minnesota and North Carolina individually.

The solely states which have a considerably higher probability than one of many small core 4 we have been talking about at being the competition that ideas the scales of the election are Florida and Pennsylvania.

Indeed, it is pretty straightforward to attract maps the place considered one of these contests makes the distinction.

There’s the aforementioned map the place we simply take a look at the polling averages in every state and congressional district. In that map the place the one contests that flip from 2016 are Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd district and Wisconsin, Biden wins by an electoral vote.

Another method Biden might win underneath the same map could be to flip Maine’s 2nd district, Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd district and Pennsylvania. Remember Michigan and Pennsylvania had been determined by lower than some extent in 2016, so it would not appear loopy in any respect that these contests would go for Biden.

Here’s the factor, although: these are razor skinny margins. You might flip each of those maps again it doesn’t matter what occurs in Maine and Nebraska. Just give New Hampshire to Trump, which he misplaced by lower than some extent in 2016.

Likewise, you are able to do the identical by giving Trump Nevada.

The level right here is not to say it is best to present all of your consideration to those contests with minimal electoral prizes. Rather, it is that mixed the states and congressional districts containing just a few electoral votes can pack a punch.

That’s why you have to be keeping track of them.

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