But past the massive prizes lie the smallest prizes within the aggressive races: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (one electoral vote), Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (one electoral vote), Nevada (six electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes).
All of those races look to be ones the place there’s a real looking probability for the end result to flip from 2016, and the polling suggests likewise. One or each candidates are promoting in all of them.
An examination of the polling averages reveals how that would occur once more. If you had been so as to add up the states Biden is forward in proper now, beginning with the state he has the biggest benefit in, the state at which he reaches 270 electoral votes might be Arizona. That’s solely, nevertheless, if he wins both in Maine or Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. If Biden misplaced within the second congressional district in each states, we would have a 269 to 269 tie.
That 7% to eight% of being decisive is barely barely much less of an opportunity than Wisconsin, roughly the identical as Michigan and truly barely greater than Arizona, Minnesota and North Carolina individually.
The solely states which have a considerably higher probability than one of many small core 4 we have been talking about at being the competition that ideas the scales of the election are Florida and Pennsylvania.
Indeed, it is pretty straightforward to attract maps the place considered one of these contests makes the distinction.
There’s the aforementioned map the place we simply take a look at the polling averages in every state and congressional district. In that map the place the one contests that flip from 2016 are Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd district and Wisconsin, Biden wins by an electoral vote.
Another method Biden might win underneath the same map could be to flip Maine’s 2nd district, Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd district and Pennsylvania. Remember Michigan and Pennsylvania had been determined by lower than some extent in 2016, so it would not appear loopy in any respect that these contests would go for Biden.
Here’s the factor, although: these are razor skinny margins. You might flip each of those maps again it doesn’t matter what occurs in Maine and Nebraska. Just give New Hampshire to Trump, which he misplaced by lower than some extent in 2016.
Likewise, you are able to do the identical by giving Trump Nevada.
The level right here is not to say it is best to present all of your consideration to those contests with minimal electoral prizes. Rather, it is that mixed the states and congressional districts containing just a few electoral votes can pack a punch.
That’s why you have to be keeping track of them.