Lockdowns in Europe are a warning to the United States

How new coronavirus restrictions in Paris and London will work



What’s occurring: Paris has imposed an in a single day curfew. In London, folks from totally different households are banned from assembly indoors. The measures are an try to stem the fast rise in Covid-19 instances throughout the continent as hospital capability once more turns into a priority.

Stocks in London, Paris, Milan and Frankfurt offered off sharply on Thursday earlier than rebounding Friday. Markets aren’t tanking like they did in March, however the fast change in local weather nonetheless presents a cautionary story.

Bank of America’s economists in Europe put it merely in a notice to purchasers on Friday: “Yes, it is bad.”

“Localized and surgical restrictions could become more disruptive if they keep mounting up,” they mentioned. “Precautionary savings, which are already large, could increase further driven by virus related uncertainty. And voluntary social distancing can easily amplify the economic impact of the resurgence of the virus.”

The measurement of the financial affect of the recent measures is tough to establish, particularly given the patchwork response in international locations just like the United Kingdom, the place cities similar to Liverpool face even tighter guidelines than London.

“Tracking the scale and scope of restrictions will be [of] utmost importance going forward,” mentioned Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay Raja. He’s sticking together with his prediction for two% development within the United Kingdom between October and December, however mentioned that if any extra restrictions are imposed, the financial system may utterly stall.

Allianz now expects key European economies to contract once more within the remaining quarter of the 12 months, with Spain’s financial system shrinking 1.3% in comparison with the earlier quarter and France’s financial system shedding 1.1%.

Big image: There’s little purpose to suppose that the problem dealing with leaders in Europe — act decisively and attempt to stave off a worsening well being disaster, or take average steps that might defend fragile financial beneficial properties — is solely a neighborhood phenomenon.

See right here: New York City is grappling with a Covid-19 resurgence in some neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens by closing non-essential businesses and schools in sure areas, an try to keep away from broader shutdowns for now.
In the United States, the one-week common of recent every day instances has moved above 53,000, a rise of greater than 55% in simply over a month, in line with Johns Hopkins University knowledge.
The Back-to-Normal Index from Source Business and Moody’s Analytics exhibits that the US restoration has successfully plateaued since mid-September. Yet Europe demonstrates how rapidly the state of affairs can back down.
Investor perception: European shares have loved heightened demand from buyers in latest months. Money managers pointed to Europe’s relative management of the virus after the spring, whereas lauding an settlement amongst EU leaders to lift 800 billion euros ($938 billion) for rercovery efforts. Without the primary a part of that equation, nevertheless, the area may wrestle.

Netflix is having a killer 12 months. Can it stick with it?

It will not come as a shock to anybody who’s been hunkering down at house that Netflix is having a knockout 12 months.

While film theaters are rapidly running out of cash, Netflix is prospering. The streaming service added 26 million subscribers within the first half of the 12 months because the cultural dialog centered on exhibits like “Tiger King.” Last quarter, Netflix more than doubled its revenue in comparison with the identical interval a 12 months earlier.

Watch the inventory: Shares have skyrocketed 64% in 2020, whereas the S&P 500 has gained nearer to eight%.

Investors will tune in Tuesday to see if Netflix can keep momentum when it reviews outcomes for the July to September quarter. The firm mentioned in July that it anticipated to result in 2.5 million subscribers throughout that interval.

Bank of America analysts thinks subscriber numbers might be weaker this quarter given elevated competitors from gamers like Disney+ and NBC’s Peacock, the return of reside sports activities and a predicted enhance in folks cancelling subscriptions.

Even so it raised its goal for the inventory to $670, a 26% rise over Friday’s closing worth, on account of religion within the firm’s long-term technique.

Up subsequent

Monday: China GDP and September industrial manufacturing, retail gross sales and unemployment; Halliburton (HAL) and IBM (IBM) earnings
Tuesday: US housing begins and constructing permits; Lockheed Martin (LMT), Philip Morris (PM), UBS (UBS), Netflix (NFLX), Snap (SNAP) and Texas Instruments (TXN) earnings
Wednesday: UK inflation; Verizon (VZ), Chipotle (CMG), Tesla (TSLA) and Whirlpool (WHR) earnings
Thursday: Germany and UK client confidence; Japan inflation; American Airlines (AAL), AT&T (T), Coca-Cola (KO), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Intel (INTC) and Mattel (MAT) earnings
Friday: PMI knowledge; American Express (AXP) and Honeywell (HON) earnings

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