The quick reply is sure. It makes quite a lot of sense given the nationwide polling that Biden is placing quite a lot of seemingly crimson states into play. This does not imply he’ll finally carry any of those states. If the nationwide race tightens, these states will in all probability fall into Trump’s column.
Now check out the present common of polls within the states Trump received by 10 factors or much less in 2016. At the identical time (in parentheses), we’ll look at what we would count on these averages to be by making use of an eight level uniform swing from the 2016 outcomes. A uniform swing is solely shifting all the outcomes a specific amount (e.g. eight factors in Biden’s path). We’re shifting these states eight factors as a result of Biden’s profitable nationally by 10 factors, and Clinton received nationally by 2 factors.
- Michigan: Biden +eight factors (Biden +eight factors)
- Wisconsin: Biden +eight factors (Biden +7 factors)
- Pennsylvania: Biden +7 factors (Biden +7 factors)
- Arizona: Biden +four factors (Biden +5 factors)
- Florida: Biden +four factors (Biden +7 factors)
- North Carolina: Biden +three factors (Biden +four factors)
- Georgia: Biden +2 factors (Biden +three factors)
- Iowa: Biden +1 level (Trump up 1 level)
- Ohio: Tied (Tied)
- Texas: Trump +2 factors (Trump +1 level)
What needs to be fairly obvious is the state polls look virtually equivalent to what you’d count on given a uniform shift of eight factors throughout states. The common distinction is only a level. Moreover, there isn’t a bias with Biden doing eight factors higher than Clinton did within the common of state polls, as you’d count on with the nationwide polls the place they’re.
Now, take a look at the states the place Biden’s matching or outperforming what we would count on on a uniform shift: Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. White voters make up a bigger share of the voters in every of those states than they do within the nation as an entire.
Meanwhile, Biden’s doing worse than a uniform shift would suggest principally in locations the place White voters make up a decrease share of the voters than they do nationally like Georgia, Texas and particularly Florida.
Still, all of those states are in play, and we should not be shocked by it. When there is a huge swing, because the nationwide polls suggest in 2020, there are going to be some seemingly surprising outcomes.
This yr, the nationwide swing mannequin is implying that at the least two states that have not gone blue in a era (Georgia and Texas) may achieve this this yr. If previous huge swings are any precedent, they very properly may.