If the present polls maintain, Biden’s placing within the strongest efficiency for a Democrat amongst seniors in a era.
A have a look at the stay interview polls since August that meet Source’s requirements exhibits Biden with an eight level benefit with seniors. This lead has been constant for some time now. If we prolong our common to incorporate all information because the starting of summer season, Biden’s lead stays.
Of course, there was some generational substitute amongst seniors. Some members of this group have been below the age of 65 in 2016 and others who have been a part of it have handed away.
If you have a look at voters who have been seniors in 2016, no matter their age in 2020, Trump led by 5 factors amongst registered voters and 6 factors amongst possible voters within the closing pre-election polls.
In different phrases, it’s extremely clear that Biden is doing considerably higher amongst senior voters than Clinton did. He’s doing higher by double-digits, at the same time as his lead nationally is 5 factors or much less wider than Clinton’s have been within the closing polls of 2016.
We additionally see Biden’s sturdy efficiency with senior voters getting right down to the state stage as nicely.
Specifically, have a look at the state of Florida. An common of stay interview polls taken since mid-summer have Biden up two factors amongst this group. That’s not as massive as his benefit nationally, however it’s a giant enchancment from the 9 factors Clinton misplaced amongst Florida seniors by within the closing 2016 polls.
The shift amongst seniors is one motive why Biden has maintained a lead within the Florida polls, regardless of doing worse amongst Hispanics.
The level is we’re seeing the shift to Biden amongst voters age 65 and older happen throughout the board in states as demographically distinct as Florida and Wisconsin.
Now, it isn’t clear what the supply of the motion of senior voters to Biden is. You could be tempted to assume it is Trump’s dealing with of the coronavirus. That, nevertheless, would not appear to be the case.
Griffin and Sides discovered proof that a minimum of a part of the explanation Biden was doing so nicely with the group is that he was perceived to be extra average than both Clinton or chief Democratic major rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Seniors aren’t as liberals as some youthful age teams .
Whatever the explanation for Biden doing so nicely, it is a massive deal. It makes up for the way comparatively poorly he is doing with different teams such. If Biden was merely matching Clinton’s numbers with seniors, he’d be doing about three factors worse within the polls. That would sink his nationwide lead below give factors and make the Electoral College race too near name.
Instead, Biden has a transparent benefit nationally and the march to 270 electoral votes.